Distribución de Probabilidades

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Tejido Carilaginoso

av Wendy Cristina Briceño

Disciplinas de la Matematica

av Brandon Santana

Probabilidad simple

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Erupciones Volcánicas

av Jesús Sánchez

Probabilidad = es la posibilidad numérica, medida entre 0 y 1 de que ocurra un evento.

In the beginning of the story (or the exposition), you will need to introduce the setting and characters. You might also want to introduce the main conflict. This part of the story is important because it gives the reader necessary background information and maybe even a first insight into a character’s personality.

Propiedades

La suma de las probabilidades de todos los resultados mutuamente excluyentes es igual a 1. Dado algún proceso o experimento la probabilidad de cualquier evento E es un numero no negativo. (E ≥ 0)

Espacio muestral

The setting (time & place) of a story can change throughout the plot.

Conjunto de todos los posibles resultados de una experiencia aleatoria.

The time of the story can also change. It can describe the event of a single day or can include an entire year's plot. Anyway, don't forget to mention it.

Evento o Experimento

Characters are essential to a good story. Usually, the protagonist(s) is/are the most affected by the plot. Introduce a character by focusing on their actions, interests, and occupation, as the physical appearance doesn't make a difference in most cases.

Acción bien definida que conlleva a un resultado único, bien definido.

Type in the name of your character.

Distribución de Probabilidades

To name your story, you have to think about the overall message and what you want your audience to understand from the story. Also, make it relevant and easy to remember.

Tipos de probabilidades

The ending of a story is essential. We all know that if the ending is weak, what happened before loses its importance. So make it unpredictable, but fair. A resolved ending answers all the questions and ties up any loose threads from the plot.

Conjunta

Se hace necesario encontrar la probabilidad de que un individuo seleccionado aleatoriamente posea dos características al mismo tiempo.

Condicional

This is the closure section of the story.
See examples of possible outcomes below:

• all problems have been solved
• it's clear how each one of your characters ends up
• your main character is transformed by the challenge

El conjunto de todos los resultado posibles puede constituir un subconjunto del conjunto universal. Es decir que la población de interés se puede reducir mediante algún conjunto de condiciones no aplicables a la población total.

Try answering these questions to come up with a closure:
- Have all the problems been solved?
- Is there a clear picture of what happens with each character in the story?
- Has the challenge transformed your main character?
- How do the characters feel in the end?

Marginal

This is the moment when the main character surpasses the last obstacle and finally faces their greatest challenge.
The climax usually follows one of these patterns:

• realization
• resolution
• choice

Type in your answer.

Ocurre en un evento en particular (una categoría)

Modelos de probabilidad

The middle of the story is where you add layers of complications that will lead to the end. Reveal more about the character's journey. Did their personality go through changes? How did they overcome the challenges? And as you build up the story’s central conflict, make it more personal to that character. Also, from the middle act, you have to lead into the final act.

Modelo clásico

There wouldn't be any tension and excitement in your story if there weren't any obstacles in your character's way.

Es el modelo que mas se relaciona con apuestas y juegos de azar

A story is nothing more than a character overcoming a series of difficulties to reach the desired goal. Obstacles usually create suspense and conflict. In overcoming obstacles, there is growth: weak becomes strong; hatred turns into love; sadness into happiness; wrong into right; lies into truth; or evil becomes good.

See a few examples below:

• stopping a meteor
• finding a killer
• finding love

Modelo de frecuencia relativa

Your character(s) need(s) motivation in order to solve the challenge(s).

Utiliza datos que se han obtenido empíricamente, registra la frecuencia con que ha ocurrido algún evento en el pasado y estima la probabilidad de que ocurra nuevamente.

Why does your character need to confront this challenge? What does he/she expect to accomplish by solving it?
See a few examples:

• will marry in 3 days
• can fix the mistakes of the past

Modelo subjetivo

Each story has a main character and that character usually needs to solve a problem or challenge. The character's challenge is the one that creates tension throughout the story.

Se usa cuando se desea asignar probabilidad a un evento que nunca a ocurrido. Debido a que no hay datos sobre los cuales confiar se deben analizar las opiniones y creencias para obtener una estimación subjetiva.

In most stories, there are 3 challenges. The number 3 is a mystical number symbolizing completeness. Try to come up with interesting challenges with which your character needs to struggle.
See a few examples below:

• turns into a werewolf at night
• is sent back in time