Climate Change Risks

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PDHPE Preliminary Core 1

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Climate Change Risks

Drought

Due to global demand, agriculture has to produce almost 50% more food by 2050.

Heat stress and Crop duration reduction

food hoarding

Droughts

Crop yield reduction

Crop price spike

Food riots

This has happened in 07-08 and 2010-11

By 2050 40% of crops will be exposed to severe droughts

Water security

Hydrological Droughts

By 2040, 152 million people in Africa will be affected by drought

By 2040, 230 million people in East and South Asia will be affected by drought

River/Coastal Flooding

South Asia’s river flooding will affect anywhere from 10-100 million people.

Around 20-30 million people are estimated to be affected by river and coastal flooding by 2100 in Southeast and South Asia

Cascading systemic risks

Energy Security

Migration pressures

Political discontent

Each year during 2008-2020, an average of 21.8 million people has been displaced by weather related globally

Poverty

Food security

Economic and trade disruption

National and international security

Climate hazards and direct impacts

Vulnerabilities mediating cascading risks

Lack of social safety nets and social cohesion

Fragility of the food system

Health Problems

Lack of sufficient sanitary and medical facilities

Increase prevalence of emerging infectious diseases and vector-borne diseases

Direct climate impacts

Heat waves

2 billion people will be affected by major heatwave

4.2 billion people are likely to experience heatwave by 2050 in Asia (90% population)

Emissions trajectory and risks

Researchers model trajectories of C02 emissions

On the RCP4.5 path, the average temp rise about 2.7 degrees