Reasons for the National Party's victory in 1948

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Reasons for the National Party's victory in 1948

Second World War

Stimulated Nationalism

Oxwagon Sentinel - many interned

Greyshirts (fascists)

Fighting against natural allies

Fanned by publications such as De Transvaler - Foited by Verwoerd (future PM)

Economic

75%of new manufacturing workers were black

Fear created as Smuts seemed to be supportive

Urbanisation

Fear in Country

Loss of power and workforce

Fear in cities

Jobs

Housing

Mixing

Appeal of the National Party

Understood the system and how to manipulate it

Grass roots energy

Herzoe's mineworkers

Easy to sell change

Simplicity of the message

The system of first past the post

Also, rural constituencies weighed more (15%)

Exacerbated by urbanisation

Established in 1910 constitution

National Party got 70 seats and the United party got 65

NP - 38% UP - 49%

Polled 37% in 1943 - 43 seats

Failings of the United Party

Weak campaign

There was fear that Smuts and, in particular Hofmeyer, were too moderate

1946 Hofmeyer proposednon-racial health service

1942 Smuts stated that segregation had failed

Too close to Stalin

Too concerned with international affairs

Smuts was old and tired

Surge in nationalism

100th anniversary of Battle of Blood River - Voortrecker monument 1838, covenant with God

Broederband

Influenced by Dutch Reformed Church

How great was it? - 1943-48 The percentage of the vote by the NP and the Afrikaner parties went from 38% to 42%