My Crystal Ball
Trends
Continual Education
And the 15 I know will be gone
In ten years, I'll need to know about 50
I am proficcient in about 15 different professional software tools
Technical skills have a short life span
Unlimited / Cloud Computing
Who owns the data?
Will be a subscription cost (SAS)
What is the cloud REALLY about?
Collaboration
Unlimited processing power
Increasing LOD
How do you manage so much information?
Who has the time (or fee) to do this modeling?
Model more, earlier...
Will continue to place demands on available hardware and software.
Renovations / New Construction
Driven by economy, and sustainability.
What to do with no BIMs?
Increasing focus on rehabbing current building stock
Incentives for Innovation
This is where DB / IPD can really add value
Change will not occur unless it is rewarded
New contract structures MUST encourge innovation
Ownership of Design
IP/Patent reform
Buildings as a "product"
Design as a "service"
Contractual changes
Cloud Computing
Risk/Reward
With less money for design, drawings will continue to have less information, and less coordination.
With risk goes reward, so to make money, you have to take on risk, not place it on others.
Risk will continue to migrate downstream to contractors and subcontractors.
Soapbox
Sustainability
All about lifecycle
Ranking Systems don't really matter
Integration
Vertical vs. Horizontal
Enterprise vs. Collaboration
Model = Analysis
Scale = LOD
State = Completeness
Not Soon Enough
Visual Augmentation
Let's you see what isn't there yet.
Superimposition of useful information in your FOV.
Fancy way of saying your glasses or contacts have displays integrated.
Networked Objects
Mimic the progress of BIM from self-awareness to social-awareness.
IPv6
Chairs, VAVs, and even toilet paper rolls will eventually become networked.
Local Positioning Systems
Supports VR or VA interfaces
Required for automated robotic installation or in-situ fabrication
The problem is accuracy
Realtime Reality Capture
Construction monitoring, etc...
Massive data flows requiring advanced compression and storage tools.
Supports a fundamental merger between the virtual and phyisical "existence" of objects.
Hardware and software advances
No More Drawings
So, why waste time making them anyway?
And will be orphaned for code review / permiting
Already orphaned for coordination and design.
Not needed for installation
Drawings will be orphaned as a means for Fabrication
Single Model Database
Enable many additional workflows
Reduce cross platform compatability issues
Fully parametric linkages
Multiple LODs
This will support multiple definitions of objects
Many modeling tools will access a single database
Environment Simulation
Design in Analysis environments
Visualization of compounding decisions
Provides multiple levels of simulation feedback
Discrete Analysis will give way to wholistic environment simulations.
Building Fabrication Process Consolidation
More will be done virtually up front, and actual construction will occur more rapidly on the back end after all the details are worked out
If you can fabricate in 3D, and Install robotically, why not fabricate on site in the final installtion location?
Wherever possible, processes that can be melded will be
Robotic Installation
Software is rapidly developing to help machines "learn" techniques and processes
Decreasing cost of robotics and other mechanized production tools
Union pressures, decreasing talented labor pools, increasing cost of labor, etc...
Some trades will have their work replaced by machines out on the jobsite
Mass Customization Processes
For us, this is a way to lower the cost and time required to deliver what we already deliver
We already make one-off custom products
Mass Customization is easier for our industry than for manufacturing
Soon
3D Fabrication
http://www.prometal-rct.com/eng/index.html
Will this usher in a new era of ornamentation?
This will expand to AEC allowing custom fabrications with complexity / detail not previously affordable.
Tools already exist in manufacturing to 3D print finished goods.
RFID / NFC
Can call up a wealth of information
Live tracking with jobsite sensors
On demand reporting
Why scan something when you can just know?
Photogrammetry/Videogrammetry
Just another type of sensor
Can truly bring the virtual and physical worlds into parity
Allows ubiquitous and real time data capture
Supplementing or replacing laser scanning
The Cloud(s) are gathering
Collaboration is changing, as is ownership of information.
Unlimited Computing* brings some computations down to earth, at a cost.
Software as a service for emerging technologies, learn to subscribe.
Cloud computing becomes monetized (not just Beta anymore).
Micro Metering
Or object level information on system performance
Micro-metering provides individual level feedback on building performance
Think thousands of sensors in a single building
Sub-metering is no longer enough detail
Detailed Analysis
Enabled by growing sub-metering
Enabled by continued improvements in computation / data.
Building Analysis based on detailed BIMs
Current tools are built on last generations data sources
Really, this is just a refinement of the generalized analysis tools we have now.
Realtime Rendering
http://unity3d.com/
http://lumion3d.com/
http://render.otoy.com/
Very expensive software, very expensive hardware
Communication with clients, etc...
Opens up a whole new world for designers.
The technology is here, for other industries (low poly counts).
BIM 2.0
This is what is required for collaboration to really work
Some ability to link objects across format types
Full parametric relationship support across objects and files
The rise of social-awareness in BIM objects
Now
Field Use of BIMs
Tools and workflows will follow
Changes over the next two years will make BIM accessible to anyone, anywhere, at any time, on any device.
The concepts are there today, but the hardware and software isn't
The last place BIM doesn't tread heavily.
Discrete Energy Analysis
Accuracy is highly questionable
Graphics-centric tools for communication
Not just for engineers anymore
Being pushed into the hands of designers
Barcodes and QR Codes
Not a lot of "Killer Apps" yet.
Somewhat limited built in data, dependent on links
For any manufactured/installed item, it is a way to link BIM with Reality
Not just for your grocery store anymore.
Laser Scanning
If you aren't using them, it's time to start.
Already cheaper than most alternatives in the long run
Bridging the gap between our virtual buildings, and the real ones.
Scheduling
Schedule Analysis and Optimization
Communication
4D Scheduling is just associating the tasks and their time spans with 3D opjects.
3D Coordination
Expanding scopes.
Prefab is the key to capturing value.
Not sophisticated anymore.
Nothing more than coordinating using current technology.
3D Printing
Really, just a toy for AEC
A great sales tool
A great Design tool
Prefabrication
The only real downside is that it requires more planning.
It has some serious benefits to cost, schedule, quality, etc...
Prefabrication is already the norm for many project types or scopes.
CNC Fabrication
Nothing is stopping us from taking control and leading this process to get better results.
Subs have been doing this for years, and we only now have a process to support them.
AEC is behind the curve, but catching up.
This is how a vast majority of the things we use get made.
BIM based Estimating
Using these is no different than using drawings, napkin skethces, etc...
Quantites are a natural byproduct of BIM
BIM
Design vs. Construction Models
It's also the foundation for our future...
Its here, its now, so who here is using it?
