Biological hazard case
study: COVID-19

What is Covid-19, it's symptoms and how is it transmitted?

Covid-19 is an example of a coronavirus. This is a family of viruses that, "range from the common cold, to MERS and SARs." (2020) Covid-19 is specifically a "respiratory illness caused by a new virus." As it is a respiratory illness, the most common of its symptoms include, "shortness of breast, sore throat and a fever." To many people, this is just a normal cold, but, for people with outlying respiratory issues, death and severe sickness can stem from Covid-19.(What you need to know about coronavirus (COVID-19), 2020) According to the Australian health website, "the virus can spread from person to person through: close contact with a carrier, contact with droplets or touching objects that have droplets from a carrier." ("What you need to know about coronavirus (COVID-19)", 2020) As can be seen from how it spreads, it is no wonder how quickly the rate of spread this virus has had. There are literally millions of germs of which we come into contact each day. As I will dive into later on, with the highest pop;ulation density in history in city's, once a person gets Covid-19 they spread their infectious germs everywhere they go. This depicts then how quickly a whole community can catch the virus from just one case.

Rate of Spread (how contagious is Covid-19?

R0 is a "mathematical term that indicates how infectious an infectious disease is." It does this by measuring "the average number of people who will contract a contagious disease from one person with that disease." ("What Is R0? Gauging Contagious Infections", 2020) This is clearly a good way to measure how infectious a specific disease like Covid-19 is. Covid-19 has a score of 5.7 which means that "one person with Covid-19 can potentially transmit the coronavirus to 5 to 6 people." Obviously this is a high number which explains how Covid-19 has become such a problematic pandemic. This image above shows how the Covid-19 ranks against some other infectious diseases. It clarifies that on avergae it's R0 score of 5.7 is high however, Murphs and Measles are far higher. An interesting example though is the SARs score of 4 as the SARs outbreak attracts a lot of similarities with the Covid-19 outbreak however, the SARs outbreak of 2003, had a much lower R0 value and as a result only 9000 people where infected with it. ("SARS | Frequently Asked Questions | CDC", 2020)

How long is the incubation period?

Before we investigate the incubation period of Covid-19, it is important to know what an incubation period refers to in terms of a disease. According to MedicineNet, "The time from the moment of exposure to an infectious agent until signs and symptoms of the disease appear." ("Definition of Incubation period", 2020) This is an essential aspect to consider when investigating infectious disease such as Covid-19. The longer the incubation period means that people are carrying the virus before they know it. As a result, they may not quarantine themselves as they are unaware that they are a carrier and will therefore possibly spread it in a community. When considering the incubation period of Covid-19, The World Health Organisation "currently estimates that the incubation periods ranges from 1 to 14 days... with a median incubation period of 5 to 6 days." (WHO, 2020) With the incubation period on average of just under a week and the virus being so infectious, itis no wonder that the virus spreads so quickly. With a law enforced compulsory isolation mandatory in many countries for carriers of the disease, it is clear that they are aware of how quickly this spreads. Therefore, a person who is currently in the incubation stage is spreading the disease all over the community as they are going around their daily lives not knowing that they are carriers of the disease.

Fatality rate

As this is the first wave of Covid-19, it is hard to put an exact figure to its fatality rate. By definition, fatality rate is "the number of deaths from a specific cause." ("Definition of FATALITY RATE", 2020). This means that when we are investigating the fatality rate of Covid-19, we are seeing the percentage of people that died as a result of the virus. In the initial period of Covid-19 (Wuhan), the "case fatality rate was reported to be 15% or six of the 41 patients." (The Lancet, 2020). Compared to other infectious diseases and their fatality rate as is presented in the graph above, ("What’s Going On in This Graph? | Coronavirus Outbreak", 2020) this was extremely high. Compared to the devastating Spanish Flu which is known to be the "the deadliest pandemic in history." (History, 2020) which had a 10% fatality rate, this initial reading of 15% started a world wide panic. Also, experts where quick to note that Covid-19 also initially had a higher fatality rate that SARS (another coronavirus) meaning that this was different to that and new strategies may have to be implemented. As time progressed however, the fatality rate changed as new situations of Covid-19 emerged. As the world wide tally went up, and more data was available, the fatality rate "decreased to between 4.3% and 11% and later, to 3.4%." (The Lancet, 2020) These where promising sings as it appeared for whatever reason, that Covid-19 was far more lethal in China than in other areas. By February it was "even lower at 0.4%" (The Lancet, 2020) As can be seen from the graph, the fatality rate has a large spread but is currently at around 1%. When this is over, it will be interesting to witness it's final fatality rate and how this compares to other infectious diseases.

Origin

Covid-19 originated in Wuhan, China. The start of global notice from reports occurred at start of 2020. Thought to have originated at a live animal food market, at the start of 2020 there were 44 cases.

First Case in another Country

On the 14th of January, 2020, the first case of Covid-19 wad detected in another country, Thailand. It was identified as a result of travel from a person who was in direct contact with the virus. This is important as now the virus was not an epidemic and was not contained in just one country.

Fortnight later

A fortnight into 2020, there were now 282 cases of Covid-19. This meant that it was declared a pandemic as it was an international threat. We can see though, that it was still in a small radius from its origins, in the Asian region however, it was spreading everyday further out from Wuhan.

Month later

It is evident to see the failure of restricting the virus. From Wuhan, to the Asian region to virtually every continent in the world, Covid-19 had spread rapidly. With 16 500 cases a month after its origin, Covid-19 was a large threat. Whilst the majority of cases where in the Asian region still, cases were growing in the other continents it was in and spreading rapidly.

6 weeks later

By half way through February, the numbers had quadrupled globally. A notable fact also is that there was the first case recorded in Africa, however, as a result of their lack of resources, it is likely that the virus already existed there. The Asian region's numbers had grown incredibly, with massive cases and death rates. The US also received a large increase in their number of cases as a result of poor leadership in containing and preventing the spread of the virus.

2 months later

A fortnight later, the pattern of increase had slowed. Whilst there was still a large increase of 20 000, this was much smaller than the 55 000 increase in the previous fortnight. Whilst the Asian region was still in immense stress from Covid-19, the numbers had not drastically increased. Also, better resources had been set up to deal with the spread and the containment of the virus. A large increase however, occurred in America, Canada and Europe. It seemed that whilst the cases had been contained in the Asian region, international travel had decimated these areas spreading them to these regions and the cases where growing.

3 months Later

A month later, the Covid-19 had an immense influx. 800 000 cases where registered and from the map, it is evident how widespread and serious this pandemic had become. European countries had overtaken the Asian regions, to note, Italy was the worst. European areas were greatly effected from international travel and poor prevention. This also correlated to the American region and Africa. All of these areas had an extreme increase with their number of cases, commonly due to poor prevention strategies.

1 million

Three months after the origin of Covid-19, there was now 1 million cases of it in the world. A large part that made up this 1 million was the Asian region as this is where Covid-19 originated, but a greater part was Europe and the Americas.

2 million

In just under a fortnight, the global cases doubled from 1 million to 2 million. This proved that this virus was not globally dying down, even though cases where severely decreasing in Asia. Again, Europe and the American region's numbers where climbing as cases spread like wild fire.

Today (23/4/20)

Now, 11 days after hitting 2 million, the pattern continues the same. By the end of April, it is very likely that without drastic changes, there will be 3 million cases world wide. This pandemic has caused world wide disruption and many deaths. It will definitely be talked about for many years to come. Hopefully however, with all of the resources and information now being more readily available, we will soon see the flattening of the curve and then a decrease.

Government Factors (Positive Government responses, China)

There are many human initiated factors that change the risk level and degree of impact in relation to Covid-19. The first one is healthcare. Whilst Covid-19 is a new concept, it does not mean that countries are either more or less prepared for it. A country like China, has been extremely active and strict with resources available at controlling the virus. Even though Covid-19 originated in China, there are now "more cases outside of China than inside it." (Kassam, 2020) also, China has reported 85 000 cases with around 5000 deaths. Whilst this is definitely not to say a small amount, it is much lower than it could have been. America has over 1 million cases with 55 000 deaths. This is largely due to the communist style government of China. They enforced strict rules on what people could do. This communist government has been criticized in the past, however, now the Chinese government "deflects the scrutiny and their message of excellence goes unchallenged." (Kassam, 2020) It is hard to gain information of what these strategies are, however, it is their secrecy and separation from the rest of the world that helped them to overcome this [pandemic when they could have been the worst effected.

Government Factors (Negative Government responses, America)

Even though Covid-19 did not originated in the US, looking at the statistics, it could be presumed that it did. "The US is now the global epicenter of the pandemic, surpassing the number of reported cases in China." ("Things the US has got wrong - and got right", 2020) But how did the US get this bad? The negative choices and views spread from Trump and the government has literally killed a quarter of a million people. "In emergencies of this immense magnitude, it soon becomes evident whether a sitting president is equal to the moment." ("What this crisis reveals about US - and its president", 2020) One look at statistics demonstrate that Trump and the US have failed its people in this time when a strong leader was needed. A huge factor is the medical supply shortages. These have meant that "healthcare workers reuse existing sanitary garb or create their own." ("Things the US has got wrong - and got right", 2020) This has been proven by much research to have made the situation so poor. With the US government enforcing people to wear masks every time they go out, it has severely impacted the healthcare field. In fact, with the supplies in arguably the wrong case, it has meant that healthcare workers cannot properly treat patients needing assistance even having to decide "who receives the life-sustaining support and who doesn't." ("Things the US has got wrong - and got right", 2020) This one decision has impacted America greatly, many people calling it a national shame. This is just one example of a president who is delusional has failed his country in a huge time of need. America is a key example of a negative government response to Covid-19.

World Health Organisation response

The World Health Organisation is a multi-nation organisation that aims to help nations and communities in times of health events. It is no doubt, that Covid-19 is a new concept to many countries but WHO pushes to help these countries in all ways possible. A very key response to Covid-19 has been publishing documents online and providing a trusted source of information concerning Covid-19. From data updated everyday to resources for communities to battle this. One key source that they have published is their "Responding to community spread of Covid-19" ("Responding to community spread of COVID-19", 2020) In amidst all of the confusion and different advice globally, WHO en devours to provide the most accurate information that governments can trust. This document includes high-low priority actions that countries should take as well as in depth advice for medical fields. Documents like these from WHO have no doubt helped nationally to slow down the spread of Covid-19. WHO has also helped globally through their funds to help aid this pandemic. Partnering with UNICEF, they have proceeded to an "all-hands-on-deck" approach to help combat this pandemic as quick and effectively as possible. ("WHO and UNICEF to partner on pandemic response through COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund", 2020) Their current donations of "127 million dollars) ("WHO and UNICEF to partner on pandemic response through COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund", 2020) has meant that they can supply many resources to help tackle the pandemic. They aid countries with technology as well as physical equipment like PPE to help everyone get through Covid-19. The World Health Organisation is extremely essential and relied upon for this help during scenarios like Covid-19.

More Economically Developed Country (Germany)

Economical development, availability of resources and education are crucial in determining the choices of responses when dealing with Covid-19. Russian is an example of a more economically developed country and as a result they have had large success in dealing with Covid-19. Whilst Europe has been hit terribly from Covid-19, Germany has "weathered the pandemic far more adeptly than its European neighbors." ("How Angela Merkel's science background gives her an edge against coronavirus in Germany - ABC News", 2020) This is due to her and her parties intelligence from education available in Germany a MEDC and the general public education. There was "willingness of the German public to react even before the government announced social distancing measures." ("How Angela Merkel's science background gives her an edge against coronavirus in Germany - ABC News", 2020) This is a clear example of socio-cultural factors have meant that a MEDC like Germany has had far greater success when choosing responses to Covid-19. With a nation receiving clear and accurate information from the educated government, and the general populous' willingness and pro activeness to aid the scenario, Germany has had great success in dealing with Covid-19. Another huge benefit of MEDC's when choosing responses to Covid-19, is the money that they have for adequate healthcare systems. Germany has "a really efficient health system." ("How Angela Merkel's science background gives her an edge against coronavirus in Germany - ABC News", 2020) and this has been pivotal when dealing with Covid-19. Not only are they able to supply support to people suffering the disease, keeping the fatality rate below, they where extremely pro-active with testing people. This was in aim to reduce the number of cases in the first place. "In Germany a vast network of hospitals, labs and clinics is able to conduct up to 700 000 tests per week." ("How Angela Merkel's science background gives her an edge against coronavirus in Germany - ABC News", 2020) This has led to there being far less cases in Germany than it's surrounding European nations and therefore, a lower fatality rate. There is no doubt that an educated nation that is economically progressed has a large choice of responses when dealing with Covid-19, preventing reducing the impact of the virus.

Less Economically Developed Country (Indonesia)

A Less Economically Developed Country is far more prone to being disaster stricken in a scenario like Covid-19. Indonesia is an example of a LEDC that has failed to deal with Covid-19 in a successful way as a result of them being a LEDC. Indonesia is a heavily military country. Too much so however, that it has effected its choices of response to Covid-19. Since they are less educated the government is acting like they have lost sight that they are "fighting a plague, not rebels." (Diplomat, 2020) Indonesia is has an extreme socio-cultural militaristic view and so far "the approach of the Indonesian government to the Covid-19 pandemic has been based on military strategy." (Diplomat, 2020) As a result of poor education and demographic location, the Indonesian government and public are worsening the situation of Covid-19 with their response strategies. There is a "lack of transparency and propaganda efforts involving a political battle to win popular support." (Diplomat, 2020) The situation in Indonesia has been turned into a political battle, a not prioritizing the people. They are using this as an opportunity for propaganda of the government when they should actually be coming together and helping everyone out. This is a time for this nation to work together, and not against. Unfortunately, the general public is not educated to know for themselves how to deal with the crisis and with no support from the government, the situation is dire. Overall "the Indonesian government is making very limited efforts to contain the pandemic's spread." (Diplomat, 2020) This is proven from many ways. "Only 318 out of every million people have been tested." (Diplomat, 2020) This is an example of a poor management plan to deal with Covid-19. Testing for the virus has been proven by experts to be one of the most prominent ways proof slowing the spread of the virus. However, the ignorant and radical Indonesian government has "denied experts' warning." (Diplomat, 2020) Another big factor is that "the government has refused to implement lock downs arguing that no country has succeeded in such an effort." (Diplomat, 2020) It is evident of how a poor education has limited the government, also due to their lack of resources to deal with this scenario. They have not followed the global trend due to their socio-economic conditions as they are using military strength over the research from experts to deal with Covid-19. It is evident how a LEDC like Indonesia picks poor management strategies to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic.

International Travel and Urbanisation

There is no doubt that one of the biggest causes for the extreme number of cases of Covid-19, is due to international travel. This graph above clearly impacts how humans through international travel and a homogenous society have increased the result of Covid-19. What could have just been a small outbreak of a coronavirus in China, this has now become one of the worst infectious diseases in the history of time. Largely, as a result of human activity. Before the agricultural revolution, people did not stay in an area for long enough for a disease to spread to a lot of many people. Indeed, before the industrial revolution, many people lived in rural areas, but afterwards, "today, 55% of the world's population lives in urban areas." and in fact, the UN predicts that "68% of thw worlds population projected to live in urban areas by 2050." (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs", 2020) However, what does this have to do with international travel and Covid-19? Just like an increase in urbanisation, international travel has increased from "25 million tourists in 1950 to 1.4 billion international arrivals." (Roser, 2020) Both of these two factors put together mean that in the case of Covid-19, this pandemic has been destructive. As can be seen by the graph above, for the majority of this pandemic, the most predominant areas of the virus have been Europe and America. This has occurred solely due to international travel and urbanisation. International travel meant that the virus quickly spread outwards from its origins. When it arrived in these other continents, it then spread rapidly due to urbanisation. This has meant that community transmission has been one of the strongest ways that the virus has spread, as there where only 44 cases from the direct source of the virus.

Specific Example (Ruby Princess and Australia)

Anyone who has watched the news within the last month in Australia has most likely heard of the Ruby Princess. This cruise ship "has become the epicenter of Australia's coronavirus outbreak." ("How coronavirus turned the Ruby Princess into 'the bastard cruise' - ABC News", 2020) The devastating Ruby Princess is clear evidence of how modern human nature has made this pandemic so severe. International travel and high population density brought about from urbanisation, has meant that there are "600 confirmed Covid-19 cases linked" ("How coronavirus turned the Ruby Princess into 'the bastard cruise' - ABC News", 2020) to the Ruby Princess. Considering that Australia only has 6500 cases, this is a near 10% from this one source. Whilst the cruise was predominantly Australian, there where "at least 35 Covid-19 cases among the 900 international passengers, amid fears the true figure could be far higher." ("How coronavirus turned the Ruby Princess into 'the bastard cruise' - ABC News", 2020) This displays the problem of a homogeneous society. With people travelling all over the world, virus and diseases are spread rapidly. The reason that it is harder to track these cases internationally is that Australia does not have access to the required data, but if they followed the same pattern as the Australian cases, it is likely that this one cruise ship caused a large proportion of world wide cases. The Ruby Princess is an example of how human activity has made Covid-19 such a severe issue that is impacted by the way that we live our lives.

GIS

GIS is geographical information system which is crucial in managing the impacts of Covid-19. The map above is an example of GIS, but how does this help with battling Covid-19? Maps like GIS "provide valuable insight to manage the crisis, maintain continuity of operations and increase resilience for long-term recovery." ("Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Maps, Resources & Insights", 2020) When we delve into this understanding, it is evident to see how important GIS is. Of course, they are a great way to outline a crisis as maps "aid better visualisation, understanding and response planning for decision makers in a rapidly changing environment." ("Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Maps, Resources & Insights", 2020) Covid-19 is definitely a rapidly changing scenario which we need data to deal with. The visual representation that GIS provides not only helps decision makers in governments and organisation, but is a very easy way for the general public to have an understanding on what is occurring. Another great component of GIS maps are the fact that they aid with a long-term recovery approach after Covid-19 concludes. GIS will provide positively as we can see them displaying less effected areas. Also, GIS will help to conclude with the extinction of Covid-19 cases as certain areas that it is still prevalent can continue restrictions to help with the extinction. Of course, GIS only works with the data that they are provided with which is a downside if there is not enough data accessible for them to be created. GIS maps overall are a great way to managing the impacts of Covid-19.

Australian Covid-19 Safe App

The Australian Covid-19 Safe app is designed as a strategy to reduce the cases of Covid-19 in Australia. Described by the Australian government as a tool to "protect you, your friends and family." ("COVIDSafe app", 2020) The main purpose of the app is to "find close contacts of Covid-19 cases and to contact these people." ("COVIDSafe app", 2020) This is a fantastic approach that the Australian government has bee taken. The reason that Covid-19 was so bad in US and Europe was as a result of community transmission. With this app being able to find close contacts of cases, it means that community transmission is far more unlikely. The only downside of this app however, is the data that it holds. Whilst it does sound good, many people are rightfully skeptical about it, and the data that it holds. Many data breaches have been raised in the past, especially the data that Facebook was ineligibly sharing. However, this app has been designed that it collects as least data as possible whilst providing accuracy. For example, it "does not collect your location." ("COVIDSafe app", 2020) This is a very large point to consider as location data hacks are some of the most costly with people getting robbed whilst on holidays or out of the house. Whilst it is totally understandable that people are skeptical of this app, it is an incredible resource provided by the Australian government to help tackle Covid-19.

Natural Factors (Climate and Seasons (Flu Season)

Overall, a general rule is that a warming atmosphere and climate causes diseases to spread to more areas. Diseases like Covid-19 come from animals, and with a warming earth, all climates are increasing in temperature. As a result of this, diseases and the animals will become accustomed to these warmer climates as will the animals that hold these germs. Another key feature is our own body's immune systems. "Climate change could alter the relationship between our body's defenses and diseases." (Goudarzi, 2020) Much research suggests that "a lot of organisms in the environment cannot survive at 37 degrees Celsius." (Goudarzi, 2020) However, as global warming continues, diseases will adapt. This means that as world wide temperatures increase, diseases such as Covid-19 will continue to be national pandemics. Even though at the moment "our temperature is a thermal barrier that protects us" (Goudarzi, 2020) this is likely to change as our temperature will remain constant. When considering Covid-19 in the current world, it is evident that climate has not effected it to a noticeable scale. It appears that Covid-19 is susceptible to all climates which can be seen through its global spread. When considering the upcoming flu season in Australia, scientists are dreading this "dreaded duo as Australia will hit a peak in coronavirus cases around flu season." ("The 'dreaded duo': Australia will likely hit a peak in coronavirus cases around flu season", 2020) Since "influenza and coronavirus cause severe pneumonia, getting them together could be a serious blow to the lungs." ("The 'dreaded duo': Australia will likely hit a peak in coronavirus cases around flu season", 2020) Since Covid-19 and the common cold both are examples of a coronavirus, they effect the same parts of the body, the respiratory system. This means that having both of these at once causes severe distress on the respiratory system and the death toll could be highly taxing. Countries in the southern hemisphere could be approach a time of huge distress with the upcoming flu season whilst northern hemisphere countries are currently in these challenging times.

Human Factors (Governments and Socio-Cultural Conditions)

Human factors can have just as much, if not more of an impact on the risk level and degree of impact concerning Covid-19. Brazil is a country that has demonstrated how poor leadership and civilian awareness has created dire situations. The President of Brazil Mr Bolsonaro remarked that "he won't be at risk from novel coronavirus due to his history as an athlete." ("Covid-19 in Brazil - Live blog", 2020) This statement clearly indicates how human factors can have a huge effect on Covid-19. For the president of a country to announce that the virus should not be feared will encourage people to not behave in the ways that they should. While all over the world people are isolating and looking after each other, "Mr Bolsonaro defied social isolation measures after meeting supporters." ("Covid-19 in Brazil - Live blog", 2020) This is a clear example of him showing an example of how he is acting as a countries leader against this pandemic. As a result, cases in Brazil have influxes tremendously. As can be seen from the above graph, since Mr Bolsonaro's actions, there has been a huge spike in the daily new cases and deaths. Whilst Brazil is now implementing strategies, it is feared that it is to little, to late. As a result, no doubt the people of Brazil have lost faith in the government yet they still "disregard quarantine rules." ("Covid-19 in Brazil - Live blog", 2020) as this is what they have been shown to do. Brazil is a key example of how Human factors have severely affected the risk level and degree of impact of Covid-19. On the other side, China is an example of how Human factors affect the risk level and degree of impact that Covid-19 has on a nation. Even though the Covid-19 pandemic originated in Wuhan, China they have already "emerged from the containment phase to the mitigation phase after only 2 months since the outbreak." ("“China shows COVID-19 responses must be tailored to the local context”", 2020) This is a tremendous result and shows how positively human factors can be concerning Covid-19. With help from WHO in terms of "technical advice on detection, testing, isolation and quarantine measures." ("“China shows COVID-19 responses must be tailored to the local context”", 2020) China has emerged from this scenario as a front runner. We know see negative scenarios like in Brazil and Europe, but China is a key positive example of how adequate planning and human factors can drastically save a nation and reduce the risk level and degree of Covid-19 in their country.

SARS and MERS in comparison to Covid-19

SARS is another example of a coronavirus and presents many similarities to Covid-19. Occurring in "China's Guangdong province." ("How do SARS and MERS compare with COVID-19?", 2020) This is the first similarity. This is not the first time that China has experienced an outbreak of an infectious disease and therefore, made them more prepared for Covid-19 when it struck. "Research has identified horseshoe bast as the natural reservoir of SARS." ("How do SARS and MERS compare with COVID-19?", 2020) Which again reconfirms the similarities of the two cases. China has so adequately dealt with Covid-19 compared to the rest of the world as a result of their experience with SARS in 2002. With modern technology, they have been able to tackle Covid-19 with even more effectiveness than SARS. However, since other countries did not really come into contact with SARS, they have not experienced a pandemic like Covid-19 in recent history. As a result, this is why it has become a world-wide catastrophe with the exception of China when they should have been the worst effected. MERS was a far less severe disease. With only 866 deaths and only affecting a small percentage of the population, it bares no similarities to Covid-19 besides them both being a coronavirus.