作者：Paweł Badeński 12 年以前
649
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: A Crazier Future
Nassim Nicholas Taleb explores the unpredictable nature of the future, emphasizing the concept of "silent evidence" and how our perception of probability is often skewed by focusing on survivors rather than considering all data points.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb: A Crazier Future Ludic fallacy we take risks - because we don't know we take them - we're blindfolded Uncertainity principle Black swan in History/Philosophy Karl Marks Doctor's - Empiricists Philosopher's through time got domain dependent Hume's Problem Silent evidence Neil Fergusson overcausation wrote a paper although we think IWW predictable the bound market did not predict it fun with data probability problem people don't write biographies - "how I lost one million dollars" we take only pool of information and dicard the rest we compute probability on those who survive, not all I world war - tension between England and Germany you don't look at episodes of tension that do not let to the war Ignore experts Subtopic Why are we suspicious of the bishop and be a sucker when it comes to an economist Robert Tivers we're not good at predicting wars 2 rules Never take advice from someone wearing suit and tie Never ask barber if you need haircut Phillip Tetlock processed 27 000 predictions Tunnell Mathematicians Mediocristan is easily mathematized and will be mathematized small number of equations is useful Domains Extremesitan dominated by the exceptions Whenever you take a large sample, a small number of observations in that domain will represent a big share of a total Weigh thousand people and add one person that is the wealthiest you can think of Mediocristan paid by the hour dominated by the collective When sample is large, exceptions can happen, but they will not screw with the result The law of large numbers
Weigh thousand people and add one person that is the heaviest you can think of Dynamic Revision "palimpsest" you don't remember what you actually predicted, but you revise your memory to adapt your prediction to current outcome Black swan History of the turkey - that gets fed for thousand days an event not a bird illusion of predictability post factum low predictability, high consequence I world war a tie very difficult to predict, based on prior information Australia you're sooner see a black swan
