My Crystal Ball
Trends
The Power of Computing
The Digital Divide
The next Bill Gates of the world will close that gap
That gap is narrowing rapidly
There is a gap between the digital and real world
Proliferation of Software
Demands a different model for software in the future
Much greater need for continue education
And the 15 I know will be gone
In ten years, I'll need to know about 50
I am proficcient in about 15 different professional software tools
Technical skills have a short life span
What is the cloud REALLY about?
Collaboration
Unlimited processing power
Consolidation
Incentives for Innovation
Or we can just wait for outside disruption
This is where DB / IPD can really add value
Change will not occur unless it is rewarded
New contract structures MUST encourge innovation
Risk/Reward
With less money for design, drawings will continue to have less information, and less coordination.
With risk goes reward, so to make money, you have to take on risk, not place it on others.
Risk will continue to migrate downstream to contractors and subcontractors.
Integration
Vertical vs. Horizontal
Enterprise vs. Collaboration
Soapbox
Technology = Tool
It just so happens that the most exciting new developments involve computing...
Only in the last few decades has "technology" taken on the "geek" image
Technology is just a tool, it is only as cool as it is useful
Not Soon Enough
Mars
So, who wants "first building on mars" on their resume?
Designing good space isn't what aerospace engineers are good at
Machine Learning
This hits home as I watch my daughter learn to walk
Compare that to hundreds of man-years that went into programming DARPA challenge cars 10 years ago
In three weeks, with no human coding, this car taught itself to drive
Big Data / Data Pools
Most important thing is how the data can be used
The size of these data sets is hard to understand
Usually cited and known for "surprising" results
Data aggregation across industries, disciplines, etc...
Visual Augmentation
Will allow us to influence people's perception of our work
Let's you see what isn't there yet.
Superimposition of useful information in your FOV.
Fancy way of saying your glasses or contacts have displays integrated.
Local Positioning Systems
Supports VR or VA interfaces
Required for automated robotic installation or in-situ fabrication
The problem is accuracy
No More Drawings
So, why waste time making them anyway?
And will be orphaned for code review / permiting
Already orphaned for coordination and design.
Not needed for installation
Drawings will be orphaned as a means for Fabrication
Environment Simulation
Design in Analysis environments
Visualization of compounding decisions
Provides multiple levels of simulation feedback
Discrete Analysis will give way to holistic environment simulations.
Soon
Building Fabrication Process Consolidation
More will be done virtually up front, and actual construction will occur more rapidly on the back end after all the details are worked out
If you can fabricate in 3D, and Install robotically, why not fabricate on site in the final installtion location?
Wherever possible, processes that can be melded will be
Robotic Installation
Software is rapidly developing to help machines "learn" techniques and processes
Decreasing cost of robotics and other mechanized production tools
Union pressures, decreasing talented labor pools, increasing cost of labor, etc...
Some trades will have their work replaced by machines out on the jobsite
Mass Customization Processes
For us, this is a way to lower the cost and time required to deliver what we already deliver
We already make one-off custom products
Mass Customization is easier for our industry than for manufacturing
3D Fabrication
http://www.prometal-rct.com/eng/index.html
Will this usher in a new era of ornamentation?
This will expand to AEC allowing custom fabrications with complexity / detail not previously affordable.
Tools already exist in manufacturing to 3D print finished goods.
Networked Objects
Mimic the progress of BIM from self-awareness to social-awareness.
IPv6
Chairs, VAVs, and even toilet paper rolls will eventually become networked.
RFID / NFC
Can call up a wealth of information
Live tracking with jobsite sensors
On demand reporting
Why scan something when you can just know?
Realtime Reality Capture
Construction monitoring, etc...
Massive data flows requiring advanced compression and storage tools.
Supports a fundamental merger between the virtual and phyisical "existence" of objects.
Hardware and software advances
Photogrammetry/Videogrammetry
Just another type of sensor
Can truly bring the virtual and physical worlds into parity
Allows ubiquitous and real time data capture
Supplementing or replacing laser scanning
Micro Metering
Or object level information on system performance
Micro-metering provides individual level feedback on building performance
Think thousands of sensors in a single building
Sub-metering is no longer enough detail
Now
The Cloud(s) are gathering
Collaboration is changing, as is ownership of information.
Unlimited Computing* brings some computations down to earth, at a cost.
Software as a service for emerging technologies, learn to subscribe.
Cloud computing becomes monetized (not just Beta anymore).
Realtime Rendering
http://unity3d.com/
http://lumion3d.com/
http://render.otoy.com/
Very expensive software, very expensive hardware
Communication with clients, etc...
Opens up a whole new world for designers.
The technology is here, for other industries (low poly counts).
Discrete Energy Analysis
Accuracy is highly questionable
Graphics-centric tools for communication
Not just for engineers anymore
Being pushed into the hands of designers
Barcodes and QR Codes
Not a lot of "Killer Apps" yet.
Somewhat limited built in data, dependent on links
For any manufactured/installed item, it is a way to link BIM with Reality
Not just for your grocery store anymore.
Laser Scanning
If you aren't using them, it's time to start.
Already cheaper than most alternatives in the long run
Bridging the gap between our virtual buildings, and the real ones.
3D Printing
Really, just a toy for AEC
A great sales tool
A great Design tool
Prefabrication
The only real downside is that it requires more planning.
It has some serious benefits to cost, schedule, quality, etc...
Prefabrication is already the norm for many project types or scopes.
CNC Fabrication
Nothing is stopping us from taking control and leading this process to get better results.
Subs have been doing this for years, and we only now have a process to support them.
AEC is behind the curve, but catching up.
This is how a vast majority of the things we use get made.
Field Use of BIMs
Tools and workflows will follow
Changes over the next two years will make BIM accessible to anyone, anywhere, at any time, on any device.
The concepts are there today, but the hardware and software isn't
The last place BIM doesn't tread heavily.
4D Scheduling
Schedule Analysis and Optimization
Communication
4D Scheduling is just associating the tasks and their time spans with 3D opjects.
3D Coordination
Expanding scopes.
Prefab is the key to capturing value.
Not sophisticated anymore.
Nothing more than coordinating using current technology.
BIM based Estimating
Using these is no different than using drawings, napkin skethces, etc...
Quantites are a natural byproduct of BIM
BIM
Design vs. Construction Models
It's also the foundation for our future...
Its here, its now, so who here is using it?
